Miss Rogue has started an interesting and provocative discussion (starting here ) on the purported death of the browser. The argument being that (connected) desktop apps are making a comeback on the strength of being more network aware but not dependent on network availability (you don’t need to be online to check your outlook calendar etc.) as well as the traditional strengths of desktop apps: better access to local filesytem, other apps and peripherals; less memory/cpu overhead and so forth. And this argument has some weight, webapps can’t solve every problem yet (though they’re getting closer, at democamp last week, I was amazed to watch a browser/flash app capturing, processing and vlog posting live from a plugged in webcam).
But consider this. The trend in connectivity is always towards greater ubiquity and the cost of bandwidth always trending towards zero. If you ask me, the biggest threat to MS office isn’t the current crop of webapps, it’s widearea broadband wireless technologies like WIMAX, EVDO (and their successors) and the ever cheaper cost of silicon (now you can get a decent wifi enabled laptop for $600, the same specs down from $2000 3 years ago). Extend this trend into the future. Mebabit connections approach free and become as ubiquitous as cellphone coverage is today (or more so). And meanwhile connected hardware becomes ever cheaper and wildly proliferate. Someday soon, useful full-featured hardware will be cheaper than hardcovers.
still want all your data and applications tied to a single desktop?